In the spring survey, 91 percent of all Swedish export companies anticipated an increase or unchanged export order intake, with only 9 percent expecting a decrease. This positive outlook has not been fully realized, according to the autumn results. Over the past six months, 24 percent of companies have instead experienced a decrease in export orders.

The Next 12 Months: Optimism Shifted Forward

Despite current uncertainties and unmet optimistic expectations, future confidence remains strong – the positive outlook has now shifted to the next 12 months. A full 59 percent of smaller companies expect an increase in orders over the coming year, while only 11 percent foresee a decline. Among larger companies, the outlook is slightly more conservative, with 43 percent expecting increased orders, 52 percent anticipating stable orders, and only 5 percent foreseeing a decrease.

“It is clear that export companies see a brightening economic outlook for next year. Recent and anticipated interest rate cuts are likely playing a key role in their positive future outlook,” says Maria Simonson, Acting Head of Client Relationship Management and Head of Sustainability at SEK.

The American Market: A New Challenge for Swedish Exporters

One concern for many Swedish export companies is the potential impact of increased U.S. import tariffs following the upcoming U.S. presidential election. If U.S. tariffs are raised, companies heavily reliant on the American market may need to adjust their strategies.

“Sweden’s economy relies heavily on strong exports, and higher U.S. trade tariffs would undoubtedly have a negative impact. However, the American market is not critical for most companies, with many placing greater importance on developments in Europe. There are also significant business opportunities for Swedish exporters in growth markets such as Asia”, says Maria Simonson.

About the Export Credit Trends Survey

The Export Credit Barometer from the Swedish Export Credit Corporation (SEK) has served as a gauge for the Swedish export industry since 2013, conducted each spring and autumn. The survey targets export companies with a turnover of at least 25 million SEK and an export share of at least 50 percent, assessing their financial situation, export orders, employment plans, and views on interest rates and the Swedish krona.

About the Swedish Export Credit Corporation

The Swedish Export Credit Corporation (SEK) is a commercially driven state-owned company that finances export companies, their subcontractors, and international buyers of Swedish goods and services. SEK financing enables companies to grow, contributing to job creation and economic growth in Sweden. SEK also supports industrial transformation to reduce climate impact in Sweden.